Pranjul Bhandari: Temperature trends tell us more about future food inflation than rainfall levels do
· livemint.com
Temperature has become a better predictor than rainfall of India’s farm sector-driven economic outcomes. And our heat problem worsens in El Niño years. As we enter a season of overlapping shocks, estimates for 2026-27 show the damage we can expect.
One, the probability of high temperatures is stronger than the probability of low rains. For instance, in the 2019-20 and 2024-25 El Niño years, rains were str...