Exponential Seniority Weighting Chain-Ladder Reserving
Mario V. Wüthrich
Abstract
We develop a tractable state-space version of the chain-ladder model. The state-space dynamics acts on the accident year axis which, in contrast to the classical chain-ladder model, makes accident years dependent. This state-space version yields an exponential seniority weighting in the chain-ladder factor estimation, and it admits an analytical likelihood representation that enables us to compute the seniority weighted chain-ladder reserves and their prediction uncertainty: the one-year uncertainty is available in closed form and the total uncertainty requires a Monte Carlo simulation from the fully tractable likelihood representation.
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