Parsimonious and Flexible Parameterizations for Realized Covariance Matrix Models
Edoardo Otranto
Abstract
Covariance models describe the dynamics of conditional covariance matrices as functions of past variances and covariances and are widely used to model the joint evolution of financial asset returns. Their specification faces two major challenges: the curse of dimensionality, whereby the number of parameters increases rapidly with the matrix dimension, and the need to ensure the positive definiteness of the estimated covariance matrices. Moreover, commonly used parsimonious parameterizations, such as scalar and diagonal specifications, fail to capture complex interactions among variances and covariances across assets and cannot accommodate the abrupt changes that often characterize financial markets. We propose a new class of parameterizations that reconciles parsimony with flexibility by allowing distinct, time-varying coefficients for each variance and covariance while requiring only a limited number of parameters. We derive sufficient conditions to ensure the positive definiteness of the resulting covariance matrices and assess the proposed approach through Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application. The results show that the proposed models can capture complex dependence structures while preserving computational tractability.
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