Settlement Infrastructure, Inside Money Elasticity, and the Network Economics of Distributed Ledger Technology
Michail Samawi
Abstract
We construct the Settlement Modernisation Index, a panel dataset of 809 reform events across 24 advanced economies between 1993 and 2024, decomposed into three economic channels and three adoption phases. We document an S-curve in inside money elasticity with two interior turning points at SMI = 0.27 and 0.93, separating a liberation phase, a post-global-financial-crisis compliance valley, and a mature-infrastructure recovery phase. We show that settlement modernisation generates network-conditional balance sheet efficiencies through a T2S event-study with year-by-year EMIR decomposition (saturation beta = +0.557, p < 0.01) and an out-of-sample synthetic control null on Switzerland's post-2021 SDX deployment. Applied along the BIS three-layer connectivity taxonomy, the framework forecasts +13.4 percent efficiency recovery from the ECB's Pontes initiative over 2027-2032. Conditional UK and US accession to the Appia composability layer (2028) raises the ceiling to +37.5 percent. Balance-sheet efficiencies from atomic settlement are a property of the bilateral pair, not the node.
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