Adaptive Breadth-Cycle Momentum

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Indices · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Market trends are most sustainable when the frequency of directional bars (breadth) aligns with cyclical momentum and structural price action. By filtering for an Advance/Decline ratio greater than 1 alongside cycle-tuned momentum (SAM), the strategy identifies high-probability 'phases' of a trend while avoiding exhaustion via ALMA floating levels. This edge relies on the behavioral tendency of market participants to increase participation (bar frequency) before major momentum peaks occur.

Components

• Advance/Decline Ratio (Bars) (regime) — Acts as a high-frequency breadth filter, ensuring the internal bar structure (count of up vs down bars) supports the direction before entering.
• ALMA with Floating Levels (direction) — Provides a noise-filtered trend baseline; floating levels prevent entering at points of extreme trend exhaustion.
• Smoothed Adaptive Momentum (entry) — Uses cycle-period tuning to time the momentum entry, reducing the lag inherent in fixed-length oscillators.
• Sherif Hilo (exit) — A trailing stop-and-reverse style exit that locks in profits based on multi-period extreme prices.
• Average True Range (NNFX) (risk) — Used for volatility-adjusted stop-loss placement and position sizing to maintain consistent risk across varying market conditions.
• Bulls Power (Elder Ray) (confirmation) — Confirms that buying pressure (current highs relative to EMA) is actively expanding in the direction of the trade.

Known failure conditions

• The dominant cycle period (from SAM) stays at minimum/maximum values for extended periods, indicating cycle collapse.
• ADR_B remains near 1.0 (50/50 split) while price makes new highs, indicating a 'thin' and unsustainable rally.
• Sherif Hilo creates constant whipsaws during periods where ATR is shrinking significantly.

Explore the full interactive blueprint with parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine (free download).