Adaptive CVD Darvas Breakout System

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Equities, Futures, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

This strategy hypothesizes that Darvas Box breakouts are only 'true' signals when supported by an accumulation of aggressive market orders (positive CVD) and are NOT the result of parabolic price exhaustion (monitored via MAPE). By filtering breakouts with volume delta and a volatility error model, we can distinguish between sustainable trend-starters and low-liquidity spikes that are prone to immediate mean reversion.

Components

• MACD EMA Crossover Visualizer (regime) — Establishes the primary trend regime to ensure entries are aligned with medium-term momentum.
• Buddha Money Flow (direction) — Confirms that Darvas breakouts are backed by aggressive cumulative volume delta (CVD) and footprint imbalances, filtering out low-volume traps.
• Darvas Boxes MetaTrader 5 (entry) — Identifies definitive price consolidation levels and provides the trigger signal when price breaches established box boundaries.
• MultiKAMA (TyphooN) (exit) — The adaptive nature of KAMA allows for tighter trailing in high-efficiency moves and avoids premature exits during minor noise.
• Pivot Point S&R with GMT Correction (risk) — Provides objective, session-synced horizontal levels for stop-loss placement and risk-per-bar calculations.
• Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) (volatility_filter) — Acts as an 'over-extension' filter; if price has deviated too far from the model (high MAPE), the probability of a mean-reversion spike against the breakout increases.

Known failure conditions

• Persistent 'stair-stepping' in MAPE without price movement, indicating a breakdown in the volatility model.
• CVD showing massive divergence (Price UP, CVD DOWN) for more than 3 consecutive Darvas box formations.
• Broker GMT offset changes leading to misaligned Pivot Point levels.

Explore the full interactive blueprint with parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine (free download).