Adaptive Cycle Confluence (ACC) Strategy

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX (Majors), XAU/USD · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Price trends in Forex are most persistent when they are driven by institutional accumulation (WAD), supported by broad currency flows (CSM), and entered at the point of maximum cyclic momentum (SAM). By using an adaptive cycle discriminator, the strategy attempts to enter at the most efficient 'wave' of a trend while using a volatility-based regime filter (Sherif Hilo/Hybrid Scanner) to avoid false breakouts. The hypothesis is that these multi-dimensional filters provide an edge over simple single-indicator trend followers.

Components

• Sherif Hilo (regime) — Defines the macro-regime using a dynamic HHV/LLV channel to ensure entries align with the primary trend structure.
• Williams Accumulation/Distribution (WAD) (direction) — Provides directional bias by verifying that the price trend is supported by volume-weighted accumulation or distribution.
• Smoothed Adaptive Momentum (entry) — The trigger mechanism; it uses a Homodyne Discriminator to time entries at the start of a new dominant cycle within the trend.
• Restu Kaioh Scalping Indicator (exit) — Signals local exhaustion via stochastic over-extension to take profits before the adaptive cycle reverses.
• Extrem SuperTrend (risk) — Provides a volatility-adjusted dynamic stop loss and trailing mechanism based on the ATR-derived median.
• Currency Strength Matrix (All) (confirmation) — Confirms that the price action is supported by relative strength between the base and quote currencies, avoiding 'false' moves driven by single-pair noise.
• Custom 006 Hybrid Table Scanner (volatility_filter) — Acts as a final liquidity filter, ensuring that volume is above average and short-term EMA alignment exists before commitment.

Known failure conditions

• Market enters a low-volatility 'stale' period where the WAD slope remains flat despite price movement.
• The Homodyne Discriminator fails to find a dominant cycle (cycle smearing), resulting in rapid SAM oscillations around zero.
• Currency Strength Matrix returns zero or stagnant values due to logic placeholder errors.

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