Adaptive Cycle & Macro-Regime Breakout

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: M15

Thesis

Trading edge exists when a price breakout occurs in the direction of the dominant market cycle (SAM) while staying within the context of a long-term volatility regime (D1 BB). By using volume-weighted support and resistance for risk, the strategy filters for structural significance rather than just price movement.

Components

• D1 Bollinger Bands (Period 90) on M15 (Forward Shifted) (regime) — Acts as a macro-volatility filter to determine if the current intraday price is extended relative to the long-term daily mean.
• Smoothed Adaptive Momentum (direction) — Ensures the trade is aligned with the market's dominant cycle as determined by the Homodyne Discriminator.
• MACD (entry) — Provides the specific tactical timing for the entry based on momentum shifts.
• CCI / Connectable [Azullian] (exit) — Detects exhaustion in the move to trigger exits before a full trend reversal.
• Volumatic Support/Resistance Levels [BigBeluga] (risk) — Uses volume-weighted market structure to set logical stop-loss levels and determine position size based on structural distance.
• Commodity Channel Index (CCI) (confirmation) — Confirms that momentum has reached a sufficient threshold to sustain a breakout.
• Boxline (Range Breakout) (volatility_filter) — Prevents entries within tight consolidation zones, requiring a price expansion event (breakout) to occur first.

Known failure conditions

• Extended periods of 'cycle smearing' where the Homodyne Discriminator fails to find a dominant frequency.
• Price oscillating around the D1 BB Middle (SMA 90) resulting in frequent regime flips.
• Volume spikes during news events that distort the Volumatic S/R levels significantly.

Explore the full interactive blueprint with parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine (free download).