Adaptive Sigmoid Cycle Scalper

Family: pullback · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: XAU/USD, EUR/USD, Indices · Timeframes: M15, H1

Thesis

Price moves are not linear but cyclical; by identifying the dominant cycle via a Homodyne Discriminator and ensuring the move is not mathematically overextended via a Sigmoid function, one can enter 'value' pullbacks (stochastic exhaustion) in the direction of the primary trend. The edge exists because markets tend to overreact locally while following a broader cyclical trend, and the Roshaneforde pivots represent structural memory of where participants previously reversed.

Components

• Chandelier Exit (regime) — Provides the primary trend filter to ensure entries are only taken in the direction of established volatility-backed momentum.
• Smoothed Adaptive Momentum (direction) — Uses the Homodyne Discriminator to ensure we are trading in the direction of the dominant market cycle rather than a static lookback period.
• Restu Kaioh Scalping Indicator (entry) — Identifies short-term mean-reversion opportunities (pullbacks) within the larger cycle for optimal entry timing.
• MACD (exit) — Used to detect the exhaustion of the entry momentum; specifically looking for histogram reversals to lock in profits.
• Roshaneforde Pivot Levels (risk) — Provides structural support/resistance based on candle reversals to place stops at points where the hypothesis is objectively invalidated.
• Momentum (MOM) (confirmation) — Acts as a secondary check to ensure the absolute price change is still supportive of the direction before execution.
• Logistic Function (SIGMOID) (volatility_filter) — Prevents buying at the 'exhaustion' tail of a price move by filtering out entries when the sigmoid function is at its upper or lower saturation limits.

Known failure conditions

• Prolonged period where the Homodyne Discriminator fails to find a dominant cycle (cycle 'smearing').
• Price consistently breaches Roshaneforde Pivot Levels without continuing the trend, indicating a high-noise regime.
• Sigmoid function remains in saturation (0 or 1) for extended periods while price continues to trend, indicating the filter is too restrictive.

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