Adaptive Strength Laguerre Trend-Follower
Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX Majors/Minors · Timeframes: M15, H1
Thesis
Market trends are most persistent when there is a measurable divergence in currency strength across a global basket. By entering during these periods using an adaptive oscillator (Laguerre RSI) while price is within a statistical volatility 'sweet spot' (Grid Bot), we capture high-velocity moves that revert to intraday liquidity zones (VWAP). The edge exists due to the lag in institutional rebalancing and the sticky nature of currency trends once directional bias is established.
Components
- ADX / Connectable [Azullian] (regime) — Establishes the trend regime; only trades when ADX > 20 and rising, ensuring we are not in a low-volatility chop.
- Currency Strength Template (direction) — Provides the directional bias by identifying the strongest and weakest currencies in a basket, ensuring trade alignment with macro flows.
- Laguerre RSI (entry) — Acts as the main entry trigger by identifying high-probability momentum shifts in an adaptive, low-lag manner.
- Daily Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) (exit) — Used to exit positions when price reverts to the intraday 'fair value' mean after a momentum burst.
- ATR Heiken Ashi (risk) — Provides a smoothed volatility measure for dynamic stop-loss placement and position sizing.
- Stochastic Oscillator (confirmation) — Confirms that the pull-back within the trend has reached a relative extreme before entry.
- Grid Bot [Grid range plugin] Two Moving Avarages [psyll] (volatility_filter) — Acts as a volatility filter; price must be outside the 'Base' average but within 'Grid High/Low' to ensure we aren't chasing outlier spikes.
Known failure conditions
- Extended low-volatility periods where ADX remains below 20 for months.
- Failure of currency strength correlations (e.g., USD strength doesn't translate to USD/CHF price action).
- Persistent 'pinning' of Laguerre RSI at extremes during parabolic moves, leading to missed entries.
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