ADR-Ichimoku Squeeze Momentum

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Price breakouts are more likely to be sustainable when a volatility expansion (NNFX Squeeze) coincides with a structural imbalance in bar closes (ADR_B). Most breakouts fail because they represent a single-candle spike; by requiring that >55% of recent bars also closed in the trend direction (ADR_B > 1.25 or < 0.8) and that price is clear of the Ichimoku cloud, we filter for 'institutional' flow rather than retail noise.

Components

Advance/Decline Ratio (Bars) (regime) — Filters for structural 'bar-dominance' where a majority of recent candles closed in the direction of the trade, ensuring the regime is not just a single-candle spike.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (direction) — Provides the primary directional bias; price must be on the correct side of the Cloud and Kijun-sen to validate the macro trend.
CCI / Connectable [Azullian] (entry) — Acts as the momentum trigger, capturing the shift from a pullback or a zero-line cross to signal entry timing.
ATR Stop Loss Finder (exit) — Serves as a volatility-based emergency exit if price violates the expected volatility envelope, regardless of trend direction.
Parabolic SAR (risk) — Provides a dynamic, accelerating trailing stop that adapts to trend speed, defining the hard risk-at-trade-start.
NNFX Squeeze (Volatility Breakout) (confirmation) — Ensures entry only occurs during a volatility expansion phase (Bollinger Bands outside Keltner Channels), avoiding low-liquidity ranges.

Known failure conditions

ADR_B remains near 1.0 for extended periods, indicating a perfectly balanced market (no structural edge).
PSAR dots frequently flip within a single Ichimoku cloud cycle, indicating high-frequency noise.
NNFX Squeeze remains 'on' for >50 bars, suggesting a high-volatility range rather than a breakout.

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