Alligator Grid-Block Accumulator

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Sustainable trends are characterized by 'Goldilocks' volatility: strong enough to create Order Blocks via ROC spikes, but not so extreme that the move is immediately exhausted (filtered by the Box Percentile). By aligning volume accumulation (WAD) with trend geometry (Alligator) and screen-space structural levels (Grid Utility), we can identify high-probability entries at the start of the 'markup' phase of the market cycle.

Components

• Grid Utility (Rosasurfer Framework) (regime) — Establishes the structural regime by defining 'significant' price levels based on screen-space density, acting as a proxy for psychological round numbers and support/resistance spacing.
• Williams Accumulation/Distribution (WAD) (direction) — Used to determine if price movement is supported by volume-weighted buying/selling pressure (accumulation vs distribution) before a trend confirmation.
• ADX / Connectable [Azullian] (entry) — Provides the primary execution trigger based on Directional Index crossovers and ADX trend strength expansion.
• Relative Strength Index (Standard) (exit) — Signals trade termination when price momentum reaches overbought/oversold exhaustion levels.
• Sonarlab - Order Blocks (risk) — Defines structural support/resistance zones based on 4-period ROC spikes; used for hard stop-loss placement and risk-of-ruin position sizing.
• Bill Williams Alligator (confirmation) — Filters out non-trending environments by ensuring the 'mouth' is open (SMMA lines aligned) before entry.
• Unsupported Box Array Percentile (volatility_filter) — Acts as a volatility threshold; entry is prohibited if the triggering Order Block's vertical range exceeds the 50th percentile of the recent box array to avoid buying exhaustion.

Known failure conditions

• Market enter 'Sleeping Alligator' state (intertwined SMMA lines) for more than 50% of a 100-bar lookback.
• WAD diverges from price persistently (Price makes New High, WAD makes Lower High) while ADX remains above 30.
• Average GridSize exceeds 2% of asset price, indicating excessive volatility for the fixed-distance grid logic.

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