AMFM Phase-Momentum Hybrid

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: 1H, 4H, Daily

Thesis

The hypothesis is that trend entries are most reliable when a market's underlying frequency (FM) shifts positive simultaneously with expanding price amplitude (AM) and established structural momentum (MOM). By using MAPE as a risk filter, we account for the historical 'noise' of the trend model, allowing the trade enough room to breathe without using static, non-adaptive stops. The edge lies in the confluence of cycle timing and structural trend confirmation.

Components

• AMFM - Ehlers AM Detector / FM Demodulator (regime) — Acts as the primary regime filter; FM zero-crosses identify cyclical phase shifts (timing), while AM slope confirms if volatility is expanding to support a trend.
• Momentum (MOM) (direction) — Confirms price velocity in the direction of the phase shift, ensuring the trade isn't entering a low-velocity 'drift'.
• Triple Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (entry) — Provides structural trend confirmation via a 'stacking' rule (Fast > Medium > Slow) to ensure entry occurs within an established macro trend.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI) (exit) — Identifies exhaustion points to exit the trade before the cyclical phase reverts or the trend overextends.
• Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) (risk) — Quantifies the historical 'noise' or average deviation from the predicted model (the slow EMA) to set volatility-adjusted stops and position sizes.

Known failure conditions

• Consecutive AMFM FM-crosses without price movement (whipsaw in flat markets).
• MAPE values dropping below 0.1% indicating 'frozen' price action where SL becomes too tight to survive spread.
• AM (Amplitude) remains flat or declining during entry signals.

Explore the full interactive blueprint with parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine (free download).