Asian Liquidity Breakout Filtered Trend

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Forex (Majors: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY) · Timeframes: M15, H1

Thesis

The Asian session represents a period of low-volatility liquidity accumulation. When the London session opens, institutional participation causes price to break this range. By combining a trend efficiency filter (VHF) with momentum confirmation (Average Force) and a tactical timing trigger (MACD), we can isolate high-probability breakouts from the 'fakes' often seen at the London open. The edge exists because of the transfer of liquidity from retail-dominated overnight sessions to institutional-dominated daytime sessions.

Components

• Forex Asia Range Box Lite (regime) — Establishes the liquidity boundaries of the overnight session; breakouts from this box often define the day's trend during the London open.
• Average Force (direction) — Acts as a directional bias filter, ensuring that momentum is aligned with the breakout direction relative to the zero-line.
• MACD Demo Implementation (entry) — Provides the tactical trigger (signal line cross) once the price has broken the range and momentum is confirmed.
• HiLo_04 (Gann HiLo Activator) (exit) — Provides a trailing stop mechanism that adapts to trend volatility, exiting when the trend structure breaks.
• Williams Fractals (risk) — Defines hard structural stop-loss levels based on local extremes, adjusted for the 2-bar confirmation lag.
• Vertical Horizontal Filter (VHF) (volatility_filter) — Prevents entries during low-energy range-bound periods by ensuring the market has transitioned into a trending state.

Known failure conditions

• Consecutive signals where price breaks the Asia Range but immediately reverses (False Breakouts).
• VHF remains consistently below 0.3 during high-impact news events, leading to missed volatility.
• Price hits Fractal stop-losses frequently due to wide ATR relative to the Asian range.

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