Cyclical Float Exhaustion Momentum Strategy

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Equities, Indices, Commodities · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Market momentum is most predictive when price action aligns with a dominant cycle detected via autocorrelation, provided that cumulative volume participation has not yet reached a historical exhaustion point (Float reset). By anchoring this to a macro-trend filter and Gaussian-smoothed confirmation, the strategy identifies high-probability windows of expansion within a broader cyclical regime.

Components

• Float Trader Indicator (regime) — Used as a regime filter to ensure the market has not reached a volume-based exhaustion point (reset) since the last significant swing.
• Unsupported UDF Switch Reassignment EMA (direction) — Acts as a macro-structural anchor; despite its inherent lag, it provides a high-inertia trend bias that price must reside above/below.
• Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE) (entry) — Provides the tactical entry signal when the smoothed RSI crosses its fast trailing volatility band.
• HiLo Activator 02 (exit) — Provides a trailing stop-style exit based on high/low price action relative to short-term averages.
• Auto Pitchfork (risk) — Used for risk management; the bands define the dynamic stop-loss levels and the median line serves as a target/scaling reference.
• Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA) (confirmation) — Confirms momentum with a low-lag, Gaussian-smoothed trend slope.
• Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram (ACP) (volatility_filter) — Filters out noisy, non-cyclical periods by requiring a high 'Normalized Power' for trade consideration.

Known failure conditions

• Dominant cycle power drops below 0.3 for extended periods (market becomes purely random/brownian)
• Float Trader volume resets occur with high frequency (indicating low-liquidity churn)
• UDF EMA lag exceeds the price's mean reversion window, resulting in permanent counter-trend bias.

Explore the full interactive blueprint with parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine (free download).