Darvas-ATM Nested Trend System

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX (Major Pairs), Indices (SPX, GER40) · Timeframes: M15, D1

Thesis

The hypothesis is that local price breakouts (Darvas Boxes) have a higher probability of sustained follow-through when they occur in alignment with a 90-day institutional trend (D1 Bollinger) and are supported by an expansion in volatility (ATM Logic). The edge exists because higher-timeframe participants provide the liquidity to turn a local breakout into a trend.

Components

• D1 Bollinger Bands (Period 90) on M15 (Forward Shifted) (regime) — Acts as the higher-timeframe regime filter. We only trade in the direction of the D1 trend (Price vs D1 Mid) or when price is mean-reverting from extreme D1 volatility bands.
• MACD EMA Crossover Visualizer (direction) — Provides the medium-term trend bias on the M15 execution timeframe to ensure alignment with immediate momentum.
• Darvas Boxes MetaTrader 5 (entry) — Identifies local consolidation and breakout levels. The breakout of a confirmed box serves as the specific price-action trigger.
• TSI Convergence Divergence (TSI_CD) (exit) — Used as an early warning for momentum exhaustion; the trade is exited when the histogram crosses zero against the trade direction.
• Frankenstein Ultimate Pro - ATM Logic (risk) — Provides the volatility-adjusted filter (ATR check) and the stop-loss logic based on the Linear Regression (LSMA) and TEMA interaction.

Known failure conditions

• Prolonged 'flat' markets where Darvas Boxes overlap continuously without directional follow-through.
• Missing dependency 'TSIs.mq5' which renders the exit logic non-functional.
• Daily volatility expansion that exceeds the M15 risk parameters significantly (stop-loss out of range).

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