DPO-Footmap Cyclic Reversion

Family: mean_reversion · Regime: ranging · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX (Majors), XAU/USD · Timeframes: M15, H1

Thesis

Short-term price cycles in liquid assets like Gold often exhaust themselves when they hit outer volatility bands (MA Channel). By using a detrended oscillator to isolate the cycle and synthetic volume delta to confirm that market participants are reacting to that exhaustion, we can identify high-probability reversal points before structural swing-points (Fractals) are formed.

Components

• Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO) (regime) — Used as a regime filter to ensure the trade is taken at the extremities of short-term cycles, avoiding entries in the middle of a price swing.
• Footmap – Heat & Volume [v1] (direction) — Provides the 'synthetic' order flow confirmation; ensures that candle anatomy suggests buying/selling pressure aligns with our cyclic trade.
• Restu Kaioh Scalping Indicator (entry) — Acts as the final execution trigger when stochastic momentum recovers from an extreme state.
• FractalScanner (exit) — Provides structural exit points by identifying local swing reversals, allowing the trade to capture the meat of a cyclic move.
• ATR Heiken Ashi (risk) — Calculates volatility-based stops using smoothed price data to prevent premature exits due to noise.
• MA Channel (Framework Version) (volatility_filter) — Determines if the price is within a high-probability reversal zone (near channel boundaries) or in a trend-extension phase.

Known failure conditions

• Price remains pinned to one side of the MA Channel for >20 bars while DPO stays neutral.
• Average trade duration falls below the lag of the FractalScanner (2 bars).
• Synthetic delta consistently diverges from actual price action (indicating the linear volume approximation is failing).

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