Ehlers-Fractal AGC Trend-Cycle Hybrid

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: M15, H1

Thesis

The hypothesis is that trend-following entries are most successful when momentum (DSP) is confirmed by local market structure shifts (OSFM) only after price has reached a normalized cyclical extreme (AGC). By filtering for broad market consensus (MTF MA) and targeting psychological 'round number' levels (Grid Points), we capture institutional-grade liquidity moves while minimizing noise from smaller retail oscillations.

Components

• Ehlers Automatic Gain Control (AGC) (regime) — Normalizes the amplitude of price action to ensure the DSP entry signal occurs at consistent relative intensities regardless of recent volatility.
• Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (direction) — Defines the primary trend direction; trades are only taken in the direction of the Kumo cloud and Tenkan/Kijun alignment.
• Ehlers Detrended Synthetic Price (DSP) (entry) — Identifies the specific cyclical turning point (zero-cross) after a retracement within the larger Ichimoku trend.
• Grid Points Utility (exit) — Provides fixed-interval psychological levels (round numbers) to serve as logical take-profit targets where liquidity often clusters.
• FakeCandle (risk) — Used for noise reduction and setting stop losses based on the smoothed 'fake' price highs/lows.
• Open Source Fractal Model (confirmation) — Confirms the DSP cycle turn with a lower-timeframe Market Structure Shift (MSS) or Change in Sub-structure (CISD).
• Multi Timeframe Moving Average Dashboard (volatility_filter) — Filters trades by ensuring broad-market consensus (SMA 10-200) across multiple timeframes supports the entry.

Known failure conditions

• Price remains 'pinned' at a Grid Point level for extended periods, causing DSP whipsaws.
• Ichimoku Kumo flattens and price oscillates through it (trendless regime).
• OSFM fails to generate CISD signals during high-velocity news events.

Explore the full interactive blueprint with parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine (free download).