EVZ-Adaptive Cyclical Momentum Breakout

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: EUR/USD FX · Timeframes: M15, H1

Thesis

Market momentum is most tradeable when implied volatility (EVZ) is in a 'Goldilocks' zone—high enough for movement but low enough for cycle stability. By combining Ehlers' adaptive momentum (SAM) with intraday volume-weighted value (VWAP) and ASI confirmation, we isolate moves where participants are actively revaluing the asset in alignment with the dominant cycle.

Components

• Euro FX VIX (EVZ) Data Loader (regime) — Identifies levels of market complacency vs. fear to filter for environments where momentum is likely to be sustained.
• Smoothed Adaptive Momentum (direction) — Determines the underlying cyclical trend direction using Homodyne Discriminator to avoid fixed-period lag.
• Daily Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) (entry) — Acts as the intraday mean; price crossing VWAP signifies a shift in value perception for the session.
• Connect MACD (Azullian) (exit) — Provides the final trend-exhaustion signal for exiting before major reversals.
• Equity Line Projection (risk) — Visualizes and manages risk by setting hard stop-loss levels based on projected account drawdown.
• Accumulation Swing Index (ASI) (confirmation) — Confirms price breaks by ensuring the internal 'swing' logic agrees with the nominal price action.
• Jurik Adaptive Envelope Bands (volatility_filter) — Ensures trades are not taken too far from the adaptive mean, preventing 'buying the top' in overextended moves.

Known failure conditions

• EVZ data feed failure or stale CSV updates.
• Prolonged low-volatility 'flat' regimes where ASI and VWAP produce numerous whipsaws.
• Failure of the asset to respect the 'Limit Move' parameter in ASI during black swan events.

Explore the full interactive blueprint with parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine (free download).