EVZ-Filtered DEMA Multi-Trend system

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX (EUR/USD focus), Major Currencies · Timeframes: 30m, 1h, 4h

Thesis

Euro FX trends exhibit maximum persistence when market-implied 30-day volatility (EVZ) is at or below its mean, suggesting a lack of 'panic' or 'shock' events. By combining this volatility regime with a momentum-confirmed breakout (DEMA/ADX) and volume support (MFI), we capture the most stable portion of a trend while exiting via momentum decay (MACD) or volatility-adjusted stops (Chandelier).

Components

• Simple Moving Average (SMA) (regime) — Provides a long-term 'anchor' to ensure trades align with the dominant multi-month trend regime.
• Moving Average Ribbon (chingc) (direction) — Visualizes momentum fan-out; ensures the fast (20-50) and medium (100) trend layers are aligned.
• DEMA 200 & ADX Combined HUD (entry) — Acts as the primary entry trigger by identifying momentum breakouts above the DEMA while ensuring localized ADX trend strength is sufficient.
• MACD (exit) — Detects momentum exhaustion or reversals to exit positions before price hits the volatility stop.
• Chandelier Exit (risk) — Uses ATR-based trailing stops to lock in profits while allowing for currency-specific noise.
• Money Flow Index (MFI) (confirmation) — Confirms that price movement is supported by volume-weighted momentum, filtering out low-liquidity spikes.
• Euro FX VIX (EVZ) Data Loader (volatility_filter) — Filters out periods of extreme uncertainty (implied volatility spikes) where trend-following logic typically fails.

Known failure conditions

• Central bank intervention causing immediate V-shape reversals that lag in ADX detection.
• Extended periods of low EVZ accompanied by 'drift' price action that triggers entries but lacks follow-through.
• Data feed failure for the external EVZ loader resulting in stale volatility filters.

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