EVZ-Macro Adaptive Cycle Momentum

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX (EUR/USD focus) · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

EUR/USD trends are most exploitable when the expected 30-day volatility (EVZ) is stable and global risk stress is low. By applying a cycle-adaptive momentum filter (SAM) to time entries triggered by ADX crossovers (using an inverted structural hypothesis) and confirmed by volume flow (MFI), we can capture institutional flows while exiting when the second-derivative of MACD momentum (MACDO) rolls over.

Components

• Euro FX VIX (EVZ) Data Loader (regime) — Filters out periods of extreme FX volatility where momentum signals are typically noise.
• Smoothed Adaptive Momentum (direction) — Identifies the dominant market cycle to determine the bias (Long/Short).
• ADX Crossing INGM (entry) — Acts as the primary entry trigger based on trend-line crossovers (respecting the inverted logic provided).
• Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Oscillation (MACDO) (exit) — Identifies exhaustion in the MACD histogram momentum for early exit before full trend reversal.
• Macro Risk Dashboard v8.2 (risk) — Provides a global risk-on/risk-off context to scale position size and set stop-loss distance.
• Money Flow Index (MFI) (confirmation) — Confirms price action with volume-weighted momentum to ensure liquidity supports the move.

Known failure conditions

• EVZ stays persistently above 15, indicating high volatility regime where mean reversion dominates.
• Macro Risk Dashboard fails to update due to FRED/Lags, causing stale risk-off bias.
• MFI and SAM provide conflicting signals for more than 20 bars, indicating a range-bound market.

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