EVZ-S&D Volatility Calibrated Trend Follower

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: EUR/USD · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Mean-reversion signals at institutional supply and demand zones are most likely to result in profitable trend-resumption moves when market-wide implied volatility (EVZ) is stable and local price noise (MdAE) is low. The hypothesis is that 'orderly' pullbacks to zones within a trend provide a better risk/reward ratio than chasing breakouts or trading zones during high-macro-uncertainty spikes.

Components

• Simple Moving Average (SimpleMA) (regime) — Used as a trend filter to ensure trades are aligned with the dominant intermediate-term direction.
• Supply & Demand Zones (NNFX) (direction) — Identifies high-probability reversal areas where institutional liquidity is likely concentrated.
• MACD EMA Crossover Visualizer (entry) — Acts as the final momentum trigger once price has entered a structural zone.
• Chandelier Exit Heiken Ashi Variant (exit) — Provides a dynamic, volatility-adjusted trailing stop based on smoothed price action.
• Median Absolute Error (risk) — Measures local price dispersion (noise) to calibrate stop-loss distance and position size.
• Euro FX VIX (EVZ) Data Loader (volatility_filter) — Filters for market environments where implied volatility is stable, as S&D zones are frequently breached during VIX spikes.

Known failure conditions

• EVZ data becomes unavailable or disconnected from local price action.
• Supply and Demand zones become so cluttered that price is permanently 'inside' a zone.
• Extended periods of low-volatility 'creep' where MACD never crosses despite price movement.

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