EVZ-Weighted Volume Gradient Trend Follower

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX (EUR/USD focus) · Timeframes: 30m, 240m

Thesis

Trend persistence in EUR/USD is most tradable when high-timeframe volume-weighted momentum (SMA200 Slope/Volume) aligns with short-term retail breakout momentum (DEMA/ADX), provided that the risk is scaled by forward-looking implied volatility (EVZ) rather than lagging price-based ATR.

Components

• Type Declaration Coverage Template (regime) — Serves as the rigorous UDT/Map data structure foundation for handling the external EVZ (risk) and smoothed volume (volatility) data objects.
• Moving Average Ribbon (chingc) (direction) — Establishes the primary trend direction by requiring the ribbon to be expanded and aligned (Short-term > Long-term).
• DEMA 200 & ADX Combined HUD (entry) — Provides the execution trigger by requiring price to be above DEMA with a localized ADX momentum surge (>20).
• MACD (exit) — Detects momentum exhaustion via signal line crossovers to exit before significant trend reversals.
• Euro FX VIX (EVZ) Data Loader (risk) — Determines position sizing and stop distance based on forward-looking implied volatility expectations.
• 200-Day Trend Background (Smoothed Volume Gradient) (volatility_filter) — Filters out low-conviction signals where the HTF slope is flat or volume-weighted intensity is insufficient.

Known failure conditions

• External EVZ data feed becomes desynchronized or fails to update.
• EUR/USD enters a regime of high realized volatility but low implied volatility (EVZ lag).
• Persistent ADX values below 20 preventing any trade entries during slow-grind trends.

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