Fat-Tail Structural Breakout Strategy

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX Majors, Indices (SPX, DAX), Commodities (Gold) · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Price breakouts from structural pivots (PPRL) are statistically more significant when they occur in the presence of fat-tailed distributions (Jarque-Bera) and strong momentum (Average Force), as these conditions signal a shift from consolidation to a new trend regime.

Components

Multi-Type Moving Average Sticker (regime) — Acts as a slow regime filter to ensure trades are only taken in the direction of the medium-term EMA trend.
Moving Averages (Multi-Method) (direction) — Acts as a short-term directional filter to ensure price momentum is aligned with the regime.
Pivot Points Reversal Levels (entry) — Identifies structural support/resistance levels derived from two-bar reversal patterns for breakout entry triggers.
HiLo Activator (Pandini Version) (exit) — Provides a dynamic trailing exit based on Gann HiLo logic, adapting to price volatility.
Jarque-Bera Test (JB) (risk) — Quantifies deviation from price normality; high values suggest fat-tail risk or imminent volatility expansion.
Average Force (confirmation) — Confirms that the breakout is accompanied by momentum relative to the recent high-low range.
ADX / Connectable [Azullian] (volatility_filter) — Filters out low-volatility periods and ensures the trend has sufficient strength (ADX > 20) before entry.

Known failure conditions

Price remains in a permanent range where HiLo Activator and Average Force whip continuously.
Jarque-Bera values remain consistently below 2.0 (perfect normality), suggesting a dead market without tail-event potential.
PPRL levels are breached instantly and frequently without follow-through, indicating noise-dominated market structure.

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