Force-Confirmed Darvas SSL Breakout

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Indices · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Market prices move in steps; consolidation periods (Darvas Boxes) represent accumulation/distribution that, when broken with sufficient momentum (CCI) and a positive relative price position (Average Force), signal the start of a high-probability trend extension. The use of volume-weighted support/resistance ensures stops are placed behind areas of true market interest.

Components

• MQL4 Minimal Sample Indicator (regime) — Serves as a 'data sufficiency' check, ensuring the local terminal has cached enough bars to provide statistically significant indicator history.
• Average Force (direction) — Identifies the directional bias by measuring whether price is currently trading in the upper or lower half of its rolling high-low range.
• Darvas Boxes Modern/Classic (entry) — Provides the execution trigger upon a breakout of local consolidation levels (box tops/bottoms).
• SSL Channel (exit) — Acts as a trailing trend-following exit that captures the 'meat' of the move and exits when price closes beyond the high/low SMA channel.
• Volumatic Support/Resistance Levels [BigBeluga] (risk) — Provides structural price levels for stop-loss placement, with width reflecting the volume-weighted significance of the level.
• Commodity Channel Index (CCI) (confirmation) — Confirms that the breakout is occurring with positive momentum, filtering out low-velocity price drifts.
• Bollinger Bands Edge Cases Utility (volatility_filter) — Acts as a 'health check' filter; if the market environment causes edge-case errors (e.g., zero volatility periods), the system remains flat.

Known failure conditions

• Persistent 'na' outputs from the BB Edge Case Utility indicating total lack of market volatility.
• Average Force oscillating rapidly around zero, suggesting a complete breakdown of directional momentum.
• SSL Channel flips occurring before Darvas breakouts can reach a 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio.

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