Gapped SuperSmoother Trend Continuation

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Forex, Equities (High Volume) spinning out of market open · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

If a market shows a significant price gap in the direction of both a long-term candle-type bias and a smoothed trend (Ehlers/HA), the gap represents a genuine liquidity shift rather than a temporary exhaustion, providing a high-probability entry for momentum continuation.

Components

• Candle Count History (regime) — Acts as a meta-regime filter; we only trade in the direction of the dominant long-term candle bias (Bull vs Bear counts).
• Heiken Ashi (Standard MT5) (direction) — Filters noise to establish the intermediate trend direction. Trades must align with the current HA candle color.
• MindTheGap (entry) — Triggers the entry by identifying impulsive price gaps that suggest a momentum surge.
• HiLo_04 (Gann HiLo Activator) (exit) — Provides a trailing exit logic that adapts to price breaking local volatility thresholds.
• Williams Fractals (risk) — Determines stop-loss placement at the most recent swing high/low, respecting the necessary 2-bar confirmation lag.
• Ehlers SuperSmoother Filter (confirmation) — Confirms the entry signal by ensuring instantaneous price is on the correct side of the low-pass filter to avoid entering on waning momentum.

Known failure conditions

• Hypothesis fails if the average win-to-loss ratio stays below 1.2 over 500 trades, suggesting the Gann HiLo exit lags too much for gap-based entries.
• Fails if the gap 'threshold' leads to a signal frequency lower than 1 trade per month on daily charts.

Explore the full interactive blueprint with parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine (free download).