GARCH-PPRL Structural Breakout System

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Equities, Indices, Forex · Timeframes: H1, D1

Thesis

Market breakouts are most reliable when they occur at structural price levels (PPRL) validated by institutional volume (CMF). Because market volatility is non-constant and exhibits 'clustering' (GARCH), risk parameters must dynamically widen or narrow based on conditional variance rather than static ATR values. Using a sensitive momentum stop (UT Bot) allows for capturing the 'meat' of a breakout before mean-reversion occurs.

Components

• Max bars back function contexts (regime) — Acts as a data integrity filter; ensures the execution environment has enough historical bars to satisfy the offset requirements of the strategy before allowing trade execution.
• Extrem SuperTrend (direction) — Provides the primary trend direction and volatility-adjusted median baseline to prevent counter-trend entries.
• Pivot Points Reversal Levels (entry) — Identifies structural price ceilings (Buy Lines) and floors (Sell Lines) based on 2-candle reversals for breakout entry triggers.
• UT Bot Alerts (MQL5) (exit) — A highly sensitive momentum-trailing stop used to exit positions quickly when the impulse of a breakout fades.
• Conditional Volatility (CV) (risk) — Uses a GARCH(1,1) model to estimate current risk; determines position size and stop-loss distance based on annualized volatility clustering.
• Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) (confirmation) — Validates that the breakout of structural levels is supported by institutional buying or selling pressure.

Known failure conditions

• The GARCH sum (Alpha + Beta) exceeds 1.0, indicating a non-stationary volatility process (infinite variance).
• Prolonged period where CMF remains near zero while price trends, suggesting price/volume decoupling.
• Market regime shifts to a low-volatility 'grind' where ATR-based stops (UT Bot) are triggered by noise rather than reversals.

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