Global Aggregate FX Strength Trend Follower
Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex (Majors and Minors) · Timeframes: H1, H4
Thesis
Market trends in FX are often driven by broad-based currency strength or weakness rather than single-pair idiosyncrasies. By aggregating momentum across 28 pairs (FXTSI) and aligning this with trend-strength (ADX) and structural support (Ichimoku), we can enter high-probability volatility expansions. The use of Heikin-Ashi smoothing for the entry trigger aims to filter out noise, though it introduces a risk of lagging or repainting.
Components
- ADX / Connectable [Azullian] (regime) — Acts as a gatekeeper to ensure the system only trades when a trend has sufficient strength (ADX > 20) to overcome noise.
- Forex True Strength Index (FXTSI) (direction) — Filters for currency-specific momentum by identifying the strongest vs. weakest individual currencies across the entire FX market.
- OTLIB Stochastic Oscillator (Heikin-Ashi based) (entry) — Provides the precise entry trigger based on localized momentum shifts using smoothed Heikin-Ashi candles.
- Bollinger bands / Connectable [Azullian] (exit) — Used as an exhaustion signal to exit positions when price overextends relative to volatility.
- Chandelier Exit Heiken Ashi Variant (risk) — Provides a trailing stop-loss that adapts to price volatility and protects against trend reversals.
- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (confirmation) — Confirms that the price action is supported by structural support/resistance (Cloud) and momentum (Tenkan/Kijun cross).
Known failure conditions
- Persistent divergence between FXTSI rankings and price action of the specific pair.
- High-frequency whipsaws in the Chandelier Exit due to the low ATR period (1.0).
- Total failure of Heikin-Ashi based indicators during 'gap' events in the underlying market.
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