Harmonic SuperSmoother Adaptive Cycle Strategy

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Indices, Commodities · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Price discovery is most efficient during high-liquidity sessions (London/NY). When the market exits a harmonic consolidation pattern (regime) in the direction of the low-pass filtered trend (direction), a momentum impulse synchronized with the dominant market cycle (entry) provides a high-probability entry point. Using an error-based stop (RMSE) accounts for the 'noise' of that specific market phase.

Components

• Custom Pattern Detection (regime) — Identifies structural consolidation phases (harmonic-like) to establish a context for trend resumption.
• Ehlers SuperSmoother Filter (direction) — Provides a lag-reduced trend bias to ensure entries are aligned with the dominant price flow.
• Smoothed Adaptive Momentum (entry) — Uses cycle-tuning to time entries exactly when the market cycle swings in the direction of the trend.
• McGinley Dynamic (exit) — An adaptive trailing exit that accelerates during fast moves and slows during noise, protecting gains more effectively than a fixed MA.
• Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) (risk) — Quantifies the 'noise' or prediction error of the current price action to set statistical stop-loss boundaries.
• Market Sessions (DarthBuddha) (volatility_filter) — Restricts entries to high-liquidity London and New York sessions to avoid low-volume false breakouts.

Known failure conditions

• Consistent failure of the Homodyne Discriminator to lock onto a dominant cycle (flat SAM).
• Market enters a 'drift' phase where RMSE is extremely low but McGinley Dynamic is repeatedly whipsawed.
• High-impact news events that invalidate technical harmonic structures instantly.

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