Hull-Intensity Volatility Breakout

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Equities, Forex, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

True price breakouts are preceded by institutional accumulation (positive Intraday Intensity) and occur when volatility (Bollinger Bands) expands in the direction of a low-lag trend (HMA). By using Murrey Math levels for risk, we align stops with structural support/resistance nodes rather than arbitrary distances, increasing the probability of surviving minor retracements.

Components

• Hull Moving Average (HMA) (regime) — Provides the primary trend filter; long only when rising, short only when falling, using low-lag properties to stay ahead of price.
• Intraday Intensity Index (III) (direction) — Confirms that the price movement is backed by institutional volume (accumulation/distribution) rather than retail noise.
• Bollinger Bands (Standard) (entry) — Acts as the volatility trigger; entry occurs when price breaks out of the bands, signaling a momentum surge.
• RSI Area (Histogram) (exit) — Identifies momentum exhaustion points for trade exits before the trend reverses.
• Murrey Math Line X (risk) — Provides objective, non-dynamic price levels based on octave math for hard stop-loss placement and position sizing.

Known failure conditions

• Successive Murrey Math 'octave' resets leading to stop-loss jumps during high-volatility regime shifts.
• Prolonged flat HMA in a low-volatility environment causing entry signals at the very peak of a range.

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