Ichimoku Float-Exhaustion Trend System

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Equities, Forex, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Markets move in cycles defined by the total 'Float' or turnover of volume; once a specific volume threshold is met at a structural trend equilibrium (Ichimoku Kumo), the previous trend is likely to resume as ownership has successfully rotated. This edge exists because it filters out low-conviction price moves that lack the volume backing required to sustain a breakout.

Components

• Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (regime) — Establishes the macro-regime; trades only taken when price is above/below the Kumo (Cloud) to ensure alignment with major trend equilibrium.
• SuperTrend & Pivots (direction) — Provides intra-day directional bias and structural support; uses the Daily Pivot Point as a 'gravity' line and SuperTrend for micro-trend confirmation.
• Float Trader Indicator (entry) — Identifies the point of volume exhaustion; entries are triggered when the 'float' of shares/contracts has fully turned over since the last swing.
• RSI Area (Histogram) (exit) — Captures momentum exhaustion; used to scale out or close positions when the RSI enters overbought/oversold territory.
• Chandelier Exit (risk) — Provides a volatility-adjusted trailing stop that protects capital during trend reversals.
• Recursive Moving Average Unlimited (confirmation) — Filters out noise via multi-pass smoothing; ensures the immediate momentum vector aligns with the larger volume-based entry.
• Average Volume (AV) (volatility_filter) — Ensures that the entry occurs during a period of expanding participation (Volume > EMA) to avoid low-liquidity fakeouts.

Known failure conditions

• Extended sideways price action where price oscillates through the Ichimoku Cloud and SuperTrend line simultaneously.
• Low tick-volume environments (e.g., holiday trading) where the Float Trader reset logic becomes laggy and irrelevant.
• Markets with significant overnight gaps that render the Daily Pivot levels and Recursive MA calculations obsolete.

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