Institutional Pitchfork Impulse

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Futures, Equities, Forex (OI Proxy) · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Institutional momentum is established when a market structure gap occurs alongside an increase in Open Interest. By filtering for volatility expansion (Gator) and recent trend dominance (Aroon), we can enter on a Keltner breakout to capture the highest-velocity segment of the trend. The use of Ehlers CG ensures we exit before the cycle mean-reverts, while the Pitchfork provides a non-linear, fractal-based framework for risk.

Components

• Aroon (regime) — Identifies the birth of a trend; filters for assets that have recently made new highs/lows relative to their lookback.
• MindTheGap (direction) — Acts as a market structure filter; requires a directional shift via an unfilled gap to establish initial bias.
• Keltner Channels (entry) — Triggers the actual entry on a volatility-adjusted breakout above the upper band or below the lower band.
• Ehlers Center of Gravity (CG) (exit) — Provides a zero-lag exit signal by identifying the cycle's balance point, signaling momentum exhaustion.
• Auto Pitchfork (risk) — Uses dynamic market structure (fractal pivots) to define support/resistance zones for SL placement and sizing.
• Open Interest Stochastic Money Flow Index (confirmation) — Confirms that the price move is backed by fresh capital (rising OI) rather than just liquidation.
• Gator Oscillator (volatility_filter) — Ensures the market is in an 'active' volatility phase (Eating) rather than a contraction phase (Sleeping).

Known failure conditions

• Successive Ehlers CG crossovers within a narrow range (market chop).
• Open Interest remains flat or declining during a Keltner breakout, suggesting a bull/bear trap.
• Price repeatedly pierces Pitchfork median lines without trend continuation.

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