Jurik-Alligator Cyclic Trendresumption

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Equities, Forex, Commodities · Timeframes: H1 stories, H4

Thesis

Market trends identified by Bill Williams Alligator are often subject to noise-induced pullbacks; by requiring a Jurik-smoothed momentum (RSX) breakout and an Ehlers cyclic confirmation (CG) during a seller-exhaustion phase (Bears Power), we can capture trend resumptions with higher precision and lower lag than traditional SMA-based systems.

Components

• Bill Williams Alligator (regime) — Establish the primary trend regime; ensures we are only trading when the 'alligator is awake' and lines are fanned out.
• Bears Power (direction) — Measures the strength of the sellers relative to the EMA. In a long setup, rising Bears Power indicates seller exhaustion.
• Relative Strength Quality Index (RSX) (entry) — Provides the final entry trigger. Jurik smoothing reduces the noise found in standard RSI, allowing for cleaner momentum crossovers.
• Bollinger Bands (Standard) (exit) — Used for dynamic profit taking when price reaches a statistical extreme relative to recent volatility.
• Chandelier Exit (risk) — Provides a volatility-adjusted trailing stop that protects capital from sudden reversals while allowing trends to breathe.
• Ehlers Center of Gravity (CG) (confirmation) — Confirms that the market cycle has reached a turning point with minimal lag, preventing entries into late-stage trends.
• Spread Monitor (Tick-Level) (volatility_filter) — Execution filter to ensure trades are only opened during periods of sufficient liquidity and low transaction costs.

Known failure conditions

• Alligator lines remain intertwined for >50 bars, indicating a deep sideways regime where SMMA-based indicators fail.
• Trailing stop (Chandelier) is hit immediately after entry more than 3 consecutive times, indicating volatility expansion beyond k=3.
• RSX remains pinned above 70 or below 30 for extended periods while CG oscillates, indicating a parabolic move where cycles break down.

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