Lorentzian Ichimoku Confluence System
Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Equities, FX, Crypto · Timeframes: 1H, 4H, 1D
Thesis
Market trends exhibit localized self-similarity in feature space (momentum/volatility) that can be identified using Lorentzian Manifolds. By entering only when these ML-predicted similarities align with traditional trend-following structures (Ichimoku) and momentum triggers (MACD), we can isolate high-probability trend legs. The trade is maintained as long as a confluence of 10 disparate technical layers (IAE) remains above a baseline threshold.
Components
- Lorentzian Classification (regime) — Acts as the primary regime filter, using non-Euclidean distance to identify if current price action resembles historical winning momentum profiles.
- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (direction) — Provides a structural trend filter; price must be on the 'correct' side of the cloud and Kijun-sen to ensure the ML prediction aligns with macro inertia.
- MACD (entry) — The execution trigger that ensures entry occurs at the moment of momentum acceleration rather than just structural bias.
- IAE — Technical Confluence Score (exit) — Aggregates 10 layers of technical data; used as an exhaustion exit when the composite confluence drops below a threshold, signaling the trend's 'energy' is spent.
- Williams Fractals (risk) — Used for objective stop-loss placement at recent swing points; the 2-bar lag is accepted to ensure structural validity of the pivot.
Known failure conditions
- Lorentzian Classification 'wins' drop below 50% over a 200-trade rolling window.
- The IAE Score remains in a neutral zone (40-60) for extended periods while price trends, indicating the confluence engine is desensitized.
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