Macro-Filtered Fractal Alligator Trend-Runner

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Commodities · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Market trends are most reliable when global macro stress is contained and session-based liquidity (Asia Range) has been breached. By using Bill Williams' Alligator to confirm momentum and Trend Break Fractals to identify structural shifts, the strategy enters high-probability moves. The edge is maintained by scaling risk via the Relative Absolute Error (RAE), which penalizes position size when price action deviates significantly from a mean-reversion model, and exiting via Fisher-transformed momentum to avoid the lag inherent in trend-following indicators.

Components

Macro Risk Dashboard v8.2 (regime) — Establishes a 'Risk-On' vs 'Risk-Off' filter; trend-following signals are only taken when cross-market stress is below a specific percentile threshold.
Bill Williams Alligator (direction) — Acts as a primary trend filter to ensure the entry is aligned with smoothed momentum across three time horizons.
Trend Break Fractal (entry) — Identifies specific market structure breakouts where price exceeds the local supply/demand levels defined by fractal peaks/valleys.
Fisher-based Scalping Indicator (exit) — Provides a sensitivity-adjusted momentum exhaustion signal to exit before the lagging Alligator lines cross back.
Relative Absolute Error (RAE) (risk) — Quantifies the current 'model error' or unpredictability of price action to dynamically scale position size and stop-loss distance.
Forex Asia Range Box Lite (volatility_filter) — Restricts entries to the London/New York expansion phase by ensuring the entry occurs outside the low-volatility Asian accumulation zone.

Known failure conditions

Macro Risk Dashboard remains above the 70th percentile for extended periods, neutralizing the strategy.
Price action remains consistently within the Asia Range Box (low volatility regime).
RAE values spike to extremes, indicating the 'model' has no predictive value for current volatility.

Explore the full interactive blueprint with parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine (free download).