Macro-Fractal Pitchfork Expansion System

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Commodities · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Market trends possess a geometric 'channel' of travel (Pitchfork) and behavioral inertia (TEMA). By entering only when a volatility-backed breakout (NNFX) clears a historical pivot (Fractal Store), we capture the most efficient part of a trend. The inclusion of a Macro Risk overlay assumes technical setups fail when systemic liquidity or credit risk premiums spike (Macro Dashboard), thus providing a behavioral 'safety switch'.

Components

• Triple Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (regime) — Sets the primary trend bias and filters out noise via triple smoothing; ensures we only trade in the direction of the dominant momentum.
• Auto Pitchfork (direction) — Defines the structural boundaries of the trend; provides the 'trajectory' within which price is expected to oscillate.
• Mn Fractal Store (entry) — Identifies recent local highs/lows (pivots) to trigger entries on the breakout of established support/resistance within the pitchfork.
• Jurik Adaptive Envelope Bands (exit) — Uses adaptive volatility to set dynamic profit targets that expand during high-velocity moves and contract during consolidation.
• Macro Risk Dashboard v8.2 (risk) — Acts as a circuit breaker; filters out systematic risk spikes or low-liquidity environments that invalidate technical structures.
• NNFX Squeeze (Volatility Breakout) (confirmation) — Confirms that the breakout is accompanied by a volatility expansion, reducing the probability of a 'fake-out'.

Known failure conditions

• High-frequency reversals where the pitchfork pivots re-draw more than 3 times in a 50-bar window.
• Consistent failure of NNFX Squeeze to lead to sustained movement (suggesting a transition to a low-volatility regime).
• Macro Risk Dashboard stays above 80th percentile for extended periods, rendering technical entries moot.

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