Mid-Week GARCH-ADX Alignment Strategy

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Indices · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

The strategy assumes that meaningful market trends are driven by institutional capital flows that peak between Tuesday and Thursday. By filtering for 'normal' GARCH volatility and requiring triple-period ADX alignment, the system identifies high-momentum windows where the probability of a sustained trend expansion outweighs the risk of low-volatility whipsaws.

Components

• Daily Seasonality (regime) — Filters out Monday 'noise' and Friday 'unwinding' flows to focus on high-conviction mid-week institutional trends.
• ADX / Connectable [Azullian] (direction) — Provides the primary trend bias and ensures momentum is increasing before considering an entry.
• Easy Trend Visualizer (ETV) (entry) — Acts as a high-conviction trigger by requiring alignment across three different ADX calculation periods, reducing false signals from single-period noise.
• HiLo Activator (Pandini Version) (exit) — Used as a dynamic trend-following exit that responds to price closing on the 'wrong' side of recent high/low averages.
• Parabolic SAR (risk) — Determines the hard stop-loss level and provides a basis for volatility-adjusted position sizing based on the distance from price.
• Conditional Volatility (CV) (volatility_filter) — Filters entries during periods of extreme GARCH-modeled volatility (systemic shocks) or absolute stagnation.

Known failure conditions

• If the strategy experiences 5 consecutive losses on Tuesday/Wednesday, the mid-week trend hypothesis is invalidated for the current market cycle.
• If Conditional Volatility remains above its 90th percentile for more than 10 sessions, the strategy's assumption of stable trend-following is compromised.

Explore the full interactive blueprint with parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine (free download).