Mitigation-Regime Grid Breakout
Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex (Majors), Indices (DAX, SPX) · Timeframes: M15 (Execution), D1 (Regime)
Thesis
Market participants often fail to defend previous supply/demand zones (Mitigation Blocks) when price momentum aligns with a higher-order daily trend. By entering on these structural failures during a volatility expansion (Standard BB) and using a rigid grid for risk, we capture the 'liquidity run' following a structural shift while exiting before mean reversion (Momentum Oscillator). The edge exists because institutional flows are more likely to override local resistance when macro-volatility is expanding.
Components
- D1 Bollinger Bands (Period 90) on M15 (Forward Shifted) (regime) — Establish a macro trend anchor. Trading only in the direction of the daily mean deviation prevents counter-trend exhaustion.
- Profile Dynamic Series Max Bars Back Test (direction) — Provides a high-frequency directional bias by ensuring current price is maintaining momentum relative to the immediate past (3 bars).
- ICT Mitigation Block Scanner (entry) — Identifies structural failures where a previous support/resistance failed to hold, signaling a high-probability reversal entry.
- Momentum Oscillator (exit) — Signals the exhaustion of the entry move, providing a mechanical exit before the mean-reversion pull-back.
- Point Based Grid (risk) — Provides rigid, non-dynamic price levels for stop-loss and take-profit based on fixed market increments rather than volatility.
- Bollinger Bands (Standard) (volatility_filter) — Acts as a volatility gate to ensure the Mitigation Block entry occurs during a period of expanding price action (breakout).
Known failure conditions
- Price remains pinned to the D1 BB Middle Band for extended periods (low-volatility regime).
- The ICT Mitigation Block repaints excessively, leading to entries on historical pivots that disappear.
- Momentum Oscillator stays above/below 100 indefinitely while price reverts, resulting in late exits.
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