Mode-Persistence Correlation Trend Strategy

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Gold (XAUUSD), Equities · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Market trends are most reliable when the frequency of directional price closes (Mode) aligns with structural momentum (ASH) and cyclical correlation (RCI). By entering only when 'trend pressure' is high relative to 'volatility noise' (XAU_TVF), we isolate high-probability extensions in the trend.

Components

• Mode of String Array (Compatibility Test) (regime) — Identifies the most frequent price-action state ('Trend_Up', 'Trend_Down', 'Chop') over a sliding window to ensure we aren't trading an outlier signal.
• Moving Averages (Multi-Method) (direction) — Provides the foundational directional bias; price must be on the correct side of the MA.
• Absolute Strength Histogram (ASH) (entry) — Captures the immediate shift in 'Bulls' vs 'Bears' strength as the primary trigger.
• SuperTrend (exit) — Acts as a trailing exit that accommodates volatility while protecting against trend reversals.
• Chandelier Exit Heiken Ashi Variant (risk) — Uses Heiken Ashi extremes and ATR to set tight, dynamic stop-loss levels.
• Rank Correlation Index (confirmation) — Confirms that the price action is a structural trend cycle rather than a noise-driven spike.
• XAU Trend Volatility Filter (XAU_TVF) (volatility_filter) — Filters out low-volatility environments where ASH signals are prone to failure.

Known failure conditions

• Hypothesis fails if the 'Mode' regime frequently oscillates between states within < 5 bars, indicating market noise exceeds structural signal.
• Failure if Chandelier Exit stops are consistently hit before SuperTrend signals a flip during profitable runs.

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