RAE-Adjusted Boxline Momentum Breakout

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Indices, Synthetic Indices (Boom/Crash) · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

The core hypothesis is that high-probability breakouts occur when a period of dynamic range compression (Boxline) is breached with high momentum (TTF/WAE) that is not yet exhausted by reaching daily extremes (DHL). By scaling risk inversely to the Relative Absolute Error (RAE), the strategy avoids over-leveraging when price action is disconnected from its recent statistical mean, filtering out low-quality 'noise' breakouts.

Components

Boxline (Dynamic Range Breakout) (regime) — Defines the market regime by establishing clear structural boundaries; a breakout signifies a transition from consolidation to expansion.
Heikin-Ashi Candles (direction) — Filters intra-bar noise to ensure the immediate candle-by-candle trend direction aligns with the breakout.
GOM KOLA SIDO — Full Integration (entry) — Provides the final execution trigger via Supertrend flip, ensuring entry occurs only when price momentum clears the ATR-based threshold.
Waddah Attar Explosion (WAE) (exit) — Identifies the exhaustion of the price 'explosion' to exit trades before mean reversion or trend stall.
Relative Absolute Error (RAE) (risk) — Quantifies the 'model error' or volatility instability; used to scale down position size when price behavior deviates significantly from its 100-period mean.
Trend Trigger Factor (TTF) with T3 Smoothing (confirmation) — Confirms that the recent range significantly exceeds the older range, ensuring the breakout has sufficient internal momentum.
Daily High Low MTF (volatility_filter) — Prevents buying directly into Daily Resistance or selling into Daily Support, filtering out low-probability exhaustion trades.

Known failure conditions

Prolonged sideways 'saw-tooth' price action where Boxline constantly resets and HA alternates colors.
High-impact news events that cause the WAE to spike and immediately collapse before the HA trend can confirm.
Asset volatility dropping such that TTF never breaches the 75/-75 threshold.

Explore the full interactive blueprint with parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine (free download).