ROC-HV SilverTrend Breakout Bias

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, D1

Thesis

Market breakouts are most reliable when they occur in the direction of moving average momentum and are supported by a high ratio of rate-of-change relative to annualized historical volatility. This hypothesis assumes that trends with 'efficient' price movement (low volatility relative to gain) are more likely to persist than those driven by high-volatility spikes. The regime filter (though containing look-ahead) posits that identifying the immediate future trend is the ultimate validation of a breakout.

Components

• Unsupported named const comparison ternary negative history (regime) — Provides a 'future-bias' regime filter; theoretically identifies the persistence of the current bar by looking at the subsequent bar's close, acting as a regime validator for trend strength.
• MACD EMA Crossover Visualizer (direction) — Establishes the primary directional bias using standard EMA convergence/divergence.
• SilverTrend Sv2 (entry) — Acts as the execution trigger by identifying price breakouts above/below dynamic local extremes.
• Risk Reward Indicator Tool (exit) — Provides the structural exit logic using a fixed risk-to-reward ratio based on the entry's volatility.
• Annualized ROC / HV Ratios (risk) — Filters out entries where historical volatility is too high relative to price movement (low Sharpe-like ratio), ensuring trades occur in efficient trends.

Known failure conditions

• If the ROC/HV ratio remains near zero for extended periods, the strategy will fail to enter trades during slow-grinding trends.
• The 'negative history' regime filter makes the strategy un-tradeable in real-time due to future-data leakage; failure is guaranteed if this leak is not replaced by a standard lag-based indicator.

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