SMC NY Sweep Fractal Reversal Strategy

Family: hybrid · Regime: high_vol · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX Majors, US Indices · Timeframes: M5, M15

Thesis

Intraday liquidity is concentrated at historical fractal extremes; institutional 'sweeps' of these levels during high-volatility session opens (NY) followed by a structural change of character (CHoCH) identify the start of a high-probability reversal or trend continuation that can be captured using volatility-adjusted exits.

Components

• Dynamic EMA with Box Method Selector (regime) — Defines the primary trend regime; price must be on the correct side of the EMA to authorize trades.
• Mn Fractal Store (direction) — Identifies historical liquidity pools and structural breakout levels that the 'Sweep' will target.
• The Daily Sweep (entry) — Provides the specific entry trigger by identifying liquidity grabs and Fair Value Gap (FVG) formations within the NY session.
• ATR Projection (exit) — Projects the hard stop-loss and take-profit levels based on current market volatility.
• Bollinger Bands (risk) — Filters for exhaustion; trades are prioritized when the sweep occurs at or outside the bands to capture mean reversion toward the SMA.
• TradeEase (confirmation) — Confirms the entry by detecting a Change of Character (CHoCH) or Order Block (OB) formation following the liquidity sweep.
• TMA Risk Panel (volatility_filter) — Dynamically calculates lot sizing based on the stop distance defined by ATR Projection and account equity.

Known failure conditions

• Price action remains range-bound between Mn Fractal levels without a clean sweep and CHoCH.
• New York session volatility is less than 0.3% ATR, indicating insufficient liquidity for the Daily Sweep mechanism.
• Consecutive CHoCH signals in opposite directions (choppiness) within the NY session window.

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