Structural Cycle & Volume Confirmator
Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Equities, Forex, Commodities · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1
Thesis
Markets exhibit a 'structural drift' based on the frequency of bullish vs bearish closes over time. By combining this macro-bias with a second-order BandPass filter (SAK) to isolate cyclical swings and confirming these moves with volume-weighted indicators (MFI/VPCI), we can identify high-probability entries where trend and volume alignment coincide with cyclical peaks. The edge exists because price-only indicators ignore the cumulative frequency of candle types and the frequency-domain properties of price action.
Components
- Candle Count History (regime) — Used as a macro-structural regime filter to determine if the asset has a historical 'drift' or bias toward bullish or bearish closes over the entire dataset.
- Swiss Army Knife Indicator (SAK) (direction) — The BandPass (BP) mode isolates the dominant price cycle; the direction is determined by whether the oscillation is above or below the zero-line.
- Money Flow Index (MFI) (entry) — Provides volume-weighted momentum confirmation to ensure the price move is backed by liquidity.
- Volume Price Confirmation Indicator (VPCI) (exit) — Detects when price moves are no longer confirmed by volume, triggering a proactive exit before a trend reversal.
- iExposure (risk) — Monitors net symbol exposure to prevent over-leveraging and calculates average entry price for managing break-even stops.
- GoldenChart MACD (confirmation) — Acts as a secondary momentum filter to ensure the fast trend (EMA 12/26) aligns with the cycle.
Known failure conditions
- SAK BandPass output remains flat near zero for extended periods, indicating a lack of tradable cycles.
- Historical Candle Count shows a near 50/50 split (Doji dominance), indicating a lack of structural drift.
- VPCI values become erratic due to decimal/point-size scaling issues on specific instruments.
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