Structural Pullback Oscillator System (SPOS)

Family: pullback · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX (Majors), XAU/USD, Indices (Volatility-heavy) · Timeframes: M5, M15

Thesis

Market participants in trending gold (XAU) markets exhibit over-reaction during minor corrections; by identifying the macro trend structure (ZigZag) and filtering noise (Heiken Ashi Chandelier), we can exploit these brief 'oversold' conditions (Restu Kaioh) as high-probability re-entry points into the dominant trend.

Components

• ZigZag+ v5 (regime) — Establishes the macro 'market structure' regime (HH/HL vs LH/LL) to ensure trades are aligned with the dominant trend direction.
• Chandelier Exit (Heiken Ashi) (direction) — Acts as a medium-term trend filter using smoothed Heiken Ashi prices to reduce candle noise and provide a volatility-based direction.
• Restu Kaioh Scalping Indicator (entry) — Identifies local pullbacks (oversold in an uptrend) to provide an optimized entry point within the larger trend.
• SuperTrend (exit) — Provides a dynamic trailing stop and exit signal based on ATR-calculated volatility bands.
• Spread Monitor (Tick-Level) (risk) — Calculates real-time risk by adjusting stop loss distance and position size based on maximum recorded intraday spread.
• Commodity Channel Index (CCI) (confirmation) — Confirms that momentum is actively supporting the direction and has not reached exhaustion before entry.

Known failure conditions

• Consecutive regime shifts in the ZigZag (choppy price action) resulting in multiple signal invalidations.
• Spread expansion exceeding 5x the average, rendering the tight scalp-like entries mathematically unprofitable.
• Long periods of price ranging between SuperTrend and Chandelier levels with no clear breakout.

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