TDI-Matrix Strength Expansion Trend

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex (Majors/Minors) · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Sustainable price trends occur when a specific currency's idiosyncratic strength (Currency Strength) is confirmed by a hierarchical moving average stack (Triple EMA) and broad momentum sentiment (TDI), specifically during periods where price variance is expanding (BB) and the mathematical trace of price change matrices indicates directional persistence. Ownership of the trend is maintained until volatility-adjusted reversal thresholds (SuperTrend) are breached.

Components

• Traders Dynamic Index (TDI) (regime) — Defines the broader sentiment regime; the RSI Price Line must be on the correct side of the Market Base Line to ensure we aren't trading against the dominant momentum cycle.
• Currency Strength Template (direction) — Ensures the specific currency being traded is showing idiosyncratic strength/weakness against a basket of peers, providing directional conviction.
• Triple Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (entry) — The entry trigger requires a perfect 'fan' alignment where the three EMAs are stacked in order, indicating established trend acceleration.
• SuperTrend (exit) — Provides a dynamic trailing exit that accounts for volatility-adjusted trend reversals.
• Roshaneforde Pivot Levels (risk) — Used for hard stop-loss placement based on the most recent reversal/engulfing candle structure rather than arbitrary pips.
• Matrix trace (confirmation) — Acts as a mathematical confirmation of momentum; the trace of a 3x3 matrix of recent price changes must be positive for longs, indicating net positive diagonal variance.
• Bollinger Bands (volatility_filter) — Filters out low-volatility periods; trades are only initiated when price is outside the mid-band and expanding toward the outer bands.

Known failure conditions

• Currency strength remains high while the Triple EMA stack collapses, indicating a divergence between basket strength and local pair price action.
• Bollinger Band width contracts significantly (squeeze) while signals are active, suggesting a transition to a ranging regime.
• Matrix Trace oscillates around zero with high frequency, indicating noise rather than momentum.

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