TSI-Session Momentum Breakout

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex (Majors and Minors) · Timeframes: M15, H1

Thesis

Currency pairs trend most reliably when there is a fundamental strength divergence between the two currencies. By combining this macro-strength (FXTSI) with intraday session structure and ATR-based volatility breakouts (UTBot), we can isolate momentum bursts that have a higher probability of following through, provided we exit before a cycle exhaustion (Elliott Wave/Donchian).

Components

• Session Range (High/Low/Mid) (regime) — Establish the intraday volatility regime by requiring price to be trading outside the London/NY 'Mid' level, identifying directional intent.
• Forex True Strength Index (FXTSI) (direction) — Identifies the fundamental divergence between two currencies to ensure we are trading the strongest against the weakest.
• UTBot Alerts (entry) — Generates a tactical entry trigger when price breaks the ATR-based trailing stop in alignment with momentum.
• Donchian Channels (exit) — Provides a dynamic volatility-based exit strategy, capturing the tail of a trend move until price breaks a local extreme.
• Elliott Wave [LuxAlgo] (risk) — Used to invalidate setups that appear to be at the end of a cycle (Wave 5) and to set stops relative to structural pivots (Wave 2/4).
• Difference of OsMA (DOsMA) (confirmation) — Ensures momentum is accelerating (positive derivative) rather than exhausting at the point of entry.

Known failure conditions

• FXTSI ranking flips (e.g., the long currency becomes weaker than the short currency) before entry.
• Price remains trapped within the Session Range Midpoint for >50% of the active session.
• Elliott Wave detects a completed motive 5-wave sequence before the UTBot trigger occurs.

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