Volume-Force Inside Bar Expansion (VF-IBE)

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Commodities · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Price expansion follows volatility contraction (Inside Bars). When this expansion is supported by positive money flow (CMF/PVT) and trend force (TDFI) within a macro trend (SMA), the resulting breakout represents an institutional shift likely to persist until a structural pivot reversal (Donchian/Pitchfork) occurs.

Components

• Simple Moving Average (SMA) (regime) — Defines the institutional long-term bias to ensure trades align with the dominant trend.
• Price and Volume Trend (PVT) (direction) — Confirms that price movement is supported by cumulative volume flow, filtering out 'hollow' price moves.
• Inside Bars (MTF Framework) (entry) — Identifies periods of price compression and volatility contraction preceding an expansion.
• Donchian Channels (exit) — Acts as a trailing stop-loss mechanism to capture trend extensions while exiting on structural reversals.
• Auto Pitchfork (risk) — Uses fractal pivots to provide structural support/resistance levels for dynamic stop-loss placement.
• Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) (confirmation) — Validates that the breakout is accompanied by institutional accumulation (Long) or distribution (Short).
• Trend Direction and Force Index (TDFI) (volatility_filter) — Filters out low-volatility 'noise' by requiring a minimum threshold of cubic trend intensity.

Known failure conditions

• Price oscillates around the 200 SMA (regime drift).
• Pitchfork pivots frequently redraw in high-noise, sideways markets, causing stop-loss instability.
• CMF stays near zero while Inside Bar breakouts occur, indicating a lack of institutional participation.

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