Adaptive Confluence Box Breakout (ACBB)

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Equities, Forex, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Sustained trends typically begin with a volatility breakout (Boxline) that occurs in the direction of an adaptive efficient trend (KAMA). By confirming this breakout with a 10-layer confluence score (IAE) and range-velocity (AF), we can filter out 'false' breakouts that lack the internal momentum or volume to sustain a new trend leg. The edge is structural (breakout) and behavioral (momentum confluence).

Components

MultiKAMA (TyphooN) (regime) — Acts as the primary trend filter; positions are only taken in the direction of the adaptive slope to filter out low-efficiency noise.
Nadaraya-Watson Envelope (EMA Proxy) (direction) — Provides a volatility-adjusted bias; price must be on the correct side of the baseline to ensure we aren't entering at an extreme extension.
IAE — Technical Confluence Score (entry) — Aggregates 10 layers of market data; a high score acts as the definitive trigger for entry when multiple systems align.
Relative Strength Quality Index (RSX) (exit) — Uses Jurik-smoothed momentum to identify exhaustion points for exiting before a mean-reversion event.
Boxline (Dynamic Range Breakout) (risk) — Defines the structural boundaries for stop-loss placement and determines position size based on the current volatility 'box'.
Average Force (confirmation) — Confirms that price is moving with velocity relative to its recent high-low range, preventing entries in lethargic markets.

Known failure conditions

Price oscillates within a single Boxline for extended periods, causing IAE score whipsaws.
MultiKAMA efficiency ratio stays near zero, indicating a total loss of trend structure.
RSX fails to reach exhaustion levels during a trend collapse (divergence failure).

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