Adaptive Flip-Flop Fractal Momentum Strategy

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Market trends are initiated by structural breaches of extreme bull/bear pivots (Flip Flops). This hypothesis posits that an edge exists when such breaches are confirmed by a local fractal pivot and timed using a cycle-adaptive momentum oscillator (SAM). The use of consolidation 'boxes' for risk provides a structural buffer that accounts for volatility, while the Ichimoku Kijun-sen ensures the trade is held until the trend's mean-reversion characteristics dominate. The strategy assumes that cycles and structure are more predictive than static indicators.

Components

• Array Sort Unsupported Order Test (regime) — Serves as a computational integrity filter; if the environment fails to return the expected '2' from the failed sort of {2,1}, the strategy assumes an unstable execution environment and remains flat.
• Flip Flop Indicator (direction) — Establishes the primary directional bias by identifying breaks in the 'highest bull bar low' or 'lowest bear bar high' within the lookback window.
• Smoothed Adaptive Momentum (entry) — Provides the precise entry trigger by timing momentum shifts using a cycle-tuned Homodyne Discriminator, ensuring entries align with the dominant market frequency.
• Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (exit) — The Kijun-sen (Base Line) acts as a trailing mean-reversion exit point, capturing the majority of a trend until momentum equilibrium is reached.
• Boxline (Consolidation Zones) (risk) — Used to define the dynamic structural invalidation point (stop-loss) and calculate position size based on the width of the current volatility box.
• FractalScanner (confirmation) — Provides structural confirmation that a local pivot has been formed, reducing the probability of entry into a vacuum of liquidity.

Known failure conditions

• The SAM oscillator remains flat or pinned at zero during high-volatility price expansions.
• The Flip Flop levels are breached more than three times in a 50-bar window without a sustained trend (indicates a non-trending 'sawtooth' regime).
• Boxline range expansion exceeds 3x Average True Range, leading to excessive stop-loss distances and negligible position sizes.

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