ADM-Ichi Drift Convergence Model

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Crypto, Equities, FX · Timeframes: H4, D1

Thesis

Sustainable market trends are not merely price movements but statistically significant 'drifts' supported by volume accumulation. By requiring alignment between a structural checklist (Ichimoku), volume-weighted momentum (WAD), and a statistical drift test (ADM), we filter for trends with high institutional participation. The edge is derived from the statistical verification that the current price path is non-random before committing capital.

Components

• MMT Ichi Workflow Overlay Profiles (regime) — Provides the structural 'Market Score' to ensure entries align with multi-timeframe Ichimoku cloud/Chikou conditions.
• Williams Accumulation/Distribution (WAD) (direction) — Acts as the lead indicator for volume-weighted momentum, ensuring price moves are backed by actual accumulation.
• Triple Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (entry) — Provides the final execution trigger based on EMA stack alignment (9 > 21 > 36).
• ADX / Connectable [Azullian] (exit) — Used to detect trend exhaustion; if ADX begins to decline, the trend's strength is waning regardless of price action.
• TopTrend (BBands Stop) (risk) — Calculates a volatility-adjusted trailing stop based on Bollinger Band extremes and an risk-offset.
• Correlation (confirmation) — Confirms that the WAD momentum is statistically correlated with the price movement (r > 0.7) to avoid divergence traps.
• Asset Drift Model (ADM) (volatility_filter) — A high-level filter that restricts trading to assets currently exhibiting non-random statistical drift.

Known failure conditions

• Correlation between WAD and Price drops below 0.3 for extended periods while price is trending.
• ADM classifies the asset as mean-stationary (t-stat < 1.96) across the primary trading horizon.
• TopTrend stop-loss levels are consistently hit before the first 9-EMA pull-back, suggesting insufficient volatility buffer.

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